Behind the scenes: how Joseph Kabila’s new alliance reshapes Congo’s power struggle

From ex-leader to rebel figurehead: the strategic maneuver behind the FRN

The Democratic Republic of Congo is witnessing a dramatic escalation in its long-running crisis after former president Joseph Kabila took command of the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN), a hybrid political-military coalition unveiled in Goma on October 12. The move marks a calculated shift from passive opposition to active resistance, uniting factions that have long operated in the shadows to challenge Félix Tshisekedi’s government.

The announcement, delivered by FRN advisor Claude Ibalanky, came without a detailed action plan or military timeline, leaving analysts to decode the coalition’s real intentions. In a carefully worded statement, leaders framed their struggle as a fight against what they call “Kinshasa’s tyranny,” vouching to end it “by all means necessary”—a phrase that has raised alarms in diplomatic circles and redrawn the battle lines across eastern Congo.

Power reshuffled: the leadership structure inside the FRN

The FRN’s command hierarchy signals a merging of political influence and armed command. Joseph Kabila, who led Congo from 2001 to 2019, now heads the coalition, flanked by a leadership team drawn from two previously distinct movements: Corneille Nangaa, former head of the Independent National Electoral Commission and leader of the Congo River Alliance (CRA), and Bertrand Bisimwa, political leader of the March 23 Movement (M23), who have both been named vice presidents. At the military helm stands General Sultani Makenga, former M23 military chief, now leading the Revolutionary Congolese Army’s high command, while Freddy Rukema Kaniki takes on the role of secretary general.

The founding charter of the FRN formally dissolves the CRA and declares the FRN its successor, though the exact status of the M23 remains ambiguous in the document. This structural ambiguity suggests an ongoing internal negotiation between political pragmatism and armed confrontation, leaving observers to question how much autonomy each faction retains under the new banner.

Root causes: what’s driving the coalition’s rise

Leaders of the FRN point to a systemic collapse across Congo: political institutions weakened by corruption, rampant economic decline, and deep social grievances. They accuse Kinshasa of failing to deliver on peace agreements, ignoring ceasefire terms, and refusing to release prisoners—charges that align with longstanding opposition narratives in eastern Congo. While these claims remain unverified independently, they resonate strongly with communities exhausted by years of insecurity and unmet promises.

Kabila’s involvement redefines the opposition landscape. Once distancing himself from armed rebellion, the former president now stands at the forefront of a coalition that openly endorses force. This transformation followed his 2025 conviction in absentia by a Congolese military court on charges including treason, war crimes, and rebellion—charges he dismisses as politically motivated. Kinshasa had been accusing Kabila of supporting the M23 and CRA for months, but the official leveling of such accusations marked a turning point in their public confrontation.

The FRN’s founding documents reveal more than tactical defiance—they lay bare a deeper fracture within Congo’s power dynamics, where electoral legitimacy, military control, and regional alliances are all being renegotiated under the weight of violence and mistrust.

Between war and diplomacy: the widening fault line in eastern Congo

The timing of the FRN’s emergence is no accident. It coincides with a surge in fighting between M23 forces, allied armed groups, and government troops in eastern Congo—territories now largely under rebel control, including the strategically vital city of Goma, captured during a 2025 offensive. While international observers and Western governments have repeatedly alleged Rwandan support for the M23, Kigali has consistently denied involvement.

Amid the escalating conflict, fragile diplomatic efforts have sought to reduce tensions. Talks in Doha and behind-the-scenes negotiations between Kinshasa and Kigali have attempted to broker ceasefires and prisoner exchanges. The FRN’s leadership has dismissed these initiatives as insincere, accusing the government of violating its own commitments and using negotiations as a smokescreen for military consolidation.

This dynamic has created a paradox: while peace talks stall, the FRN’s armed wing grows stronger, leaving regional mediators scrambling to prevent a full-scale regionalized war. The coalition’s ascent underscores a dangerous new phase in Congo’s decades-old instability—one where the lines between politics, war, and state failure have become dangerously blurred.

Unanswered questions shaping Congo’s next chapter

With Kabila now at the helm of a coalition openly advocating force, the stakes could not be higher. Yet critical questions remain unanswered: how will the M23 integrate into the FRN’s command structure, and what role will it play in shaping the coalition’s military strategy? Will the FRN launch large-scale offensives, or will it rely on guerrilla tactics and political pressure? Most importantly, how will neighboring states and international actors respond to what is now a unified opposition bloc with a military face and a political agenda?

The FRN’s existence forces a reckoning within Congo and beyond. It signals not just a new front in the country’s conflict, but the consolidation of power among figures who reject the current order—and who, for the first time, are uniting under a single banner to challenge it head-on.

By Alasane OUEDRAOGO — Journalist