the roots of the crisis

On July 30, 2023, just four days after the coup that removed President Mohamed Bazoum, ECOWAS issued an ultimatum to the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) to reinstate the deposed leader. The regional bloc imposed sanctions and threatened military intervention.

The ultimatum was perceived as a declaration of war by Mali and Burkina Faso, both under military rule, making it impossible to address Niger’s situation in isolation. These three nations later formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a decisive move toward severing ties with ECOWAS. While their withdrawal became official in January 2025, communication between the two blocs persists.

Lansana Kouyaté steps in as mediator

International relations expert Pape Ibrahima Kane highlights a recent breakthrough: ECOWAS has appointed former Guinean Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté as the chief negotiator with the AES. During the bloc’s July 18, 2026 meeting in Freetown, ECOWAS instructed its new Commission President, Senegalese Birame Diop, to prioritize regional security discussions.

“This marks the beginning of a promising process. Both sides are aligned and ready to engage in dialogue,” Kane explains. He emphasizes Niger’s unique position, dependent on Nigeria and Benin—both ECOWAS members—for electricity and access to the Port of Cotonou. Kane is confident Kouyaté will address these critical dependencies while balancing the interests of the AES and ECOWAS.

new leadership, new hope

Another positive sign comes from the appointment of Bassirou Diomaye Faye as ECOWAS chair. Shortly after his election in 2024, Faye visited the AES countries. Meanwhile, Benin’s newly elected President Romuald Wadagni chose Niger for his first official trip, followed by visits to Burkina Faso and Mali.

“Faye and Wadagni are in a better position than their predecessors,” notes Pape Ibrahima Kane. “They’re part of a fresh team in Abuja that’s adopting a less confrontational approach than before.”

Sahanine Mahamadou, a special advisor to Mohamed Bazoum, argues that ECOWAS has always favored dialogue with Niger. “The military leadership has consistently rejected it. If they truly care about their country, they should pave the way for civilian rule. Times have changed; military governance is no longer sustainable in our states.”

Mahamadou’s remarks subtly call for Bazoum’s return. The deposed president has yet to submit his resignation letter. In March, the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning Bazoum’s detention and calling for his immediate release—a move Niamey dismissed as interference.

the fate of Mohamed Bazoum

Jérôme Pigné, founder of the Sahel Strategic Reflection Network, questions how the EU can uphold its values while engaging with Niger. “Bazoum’s unlawful detention is a major obstacle, but the EU must clarify its priorities: Will it compromise its principles for realpolitik? For now, no one has found the right balance.”

Pigné notes that Niger was once a key EU partner, adding that Brussels is “reassessing its cooperation framework with Niger and its neighbors.” He stresses the necessity of dialogue: “It exists and must continue.”

A March report by Germany’s Berlin-based Institute for Economy and Policy (SWP) suggested that “Europe should offer substantial support to stabilize the region’s military regimes.” This could include enhanced military cooperation, intelligence sharing, equipment provision, and security force training. The SWP also advocates for EU involvement in economic recovery and sustained political dialogue with regional stakeholders—though it warns against expecting behavioral change from the juntas.