For years, the story was straightforward. After pushing out French and European forces, Mali turned to Russia. Under General Assimi Goïta, Bamako made Moscow its primary security partner, welcoming first Wagner fighters and later Africa Corps operatives, while steadily severing ties with Western partners.
By 2026, that narrative is cracking. Mali has not formally broken with Russia, but signs of a rapprochement with the United States are multiplying: intelligence cooperation, talks on American surveillance flights, and the lifting of sanctions on senior Malian officials. Bamako appears to be diversifying its alliances, and Washington has once again become a preferred interlocutor. For ordinary Malians, the shift could reshape daily security, economic opportunities, and the cost of living.
Washington’s quiet return
The most striking signal of this change concerns military intelligence.
In March 2026, reports emerged that Washington and Bamako were close to an agreement allowing the United States to resume aircraft and drone flights over Mali to monitor jihadist groups, particularly JNIM, an Al-Qaeda affiliate. The talks followed the US decision in February to lift sanctions against Mali’s defense minister and several senior officials.
This development is far from trivial.
During the period of tension with Western powers, Bamako presented Russia as the partner capable of replacing the old Western powers. Now, Malian authorities are again willing to discuss with Washington capabilities they clearly need: intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
The United States had already shared intelligence with Malian authorities, some of which reportedly contributed to an operation against JNIM figures. Washington now aims to institutionalize this cooperation further.
The paradox is striking: Mali, which had turned its back on the West to move closer to Moscow, may be rediscovering Washington’s strategic utility.
Russia’s security record that embarrasses Bamako
Why is this shift happening now? Part of the answer lies in the security record of recent years.
To be precise: Wagner’s arrival in Mali does not mean that all security deterioration is attributable to Russia. The country was already facing a jihadist insurgency before French forces left. Armed groups have deep local roots and benefit from political, social, economic, and geographic factors that go far beyond the presence of a foreign power.
But statistics reveal a reality difficult to ignore: replacing Western partners with Russian forces has not durably curbed violence.
The US State Department’s 2022 report indicated that terrorist activities had increased in number and lethality. That year, France completed its withdrawal from Mali, with the last French soldier leaving on August 15, 2022. Meanwhile, Malian forces, backed by Wagner, occupied former French positions. The State Department called 2022 the deadliest year in Mali’s history in terms of terrorist violence and counterterrorism operations.
The following year did not reverse the trend.
According to the 2023 US terrorism report, terrorist activities increased further in number and intensity. The document describes 2023 as the deadliest year in Mali’s history, considering both terrorist attacks and operations by Malian forces with Wagner.
The finding is particularly embarrassing for the narrative that presented the Russian partnership as the solution to Mali’s security problem.
From Wagner to Africa Corps: Moscow hasn’t disappeared
It would be premature, however, to announce Russia’s departure.
Wagner has been gradually replaced by Africa Corps, directly linked to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Moscow therefore retains a significant military and political presence in Mali.
But this presence is also facing setbacks.
In April 2026, an offensive by JNIM and Tuareg fighters dealt serious blows to Malian forces and their Russian allies. Mali’s defense minister, Sadio Camara, trained in Russia, was killed in an attack. Africa Corps also had to withdraw from Kidal, a strategic northern city it had helped retake in 2023.
Reports at the time said these setbacks had seriously damaged Russia’s image as a guarantor of security in Mali. ACLED analyst Héni Nsaibia even argued that JNIM’s successive campaigns, the fuel blockade, and recent events illustrated the failure of the Russian intervention.
This is, of course, an analysis, not a universal verdict. But it highlights a problem that has become hard to ignore: Moscow has not succeeded in ending the insurgency.
Security still under pressure
Figures available in 2025 reinforce this question.
According to ACLED data, Malian forces and Russian paramilitary groups Wagner and Africa Corps reportedly killed 918 civilians in Mali in 2025, compared with 232 attributed to JNIM and Islamic State in the Sahel. These figures cover documented deaths and should be interpreted with caution. They nevertheless reflect the scale of violence and accusations against government forces and their Russian allies.
At the same time, jihadists continued to advance. JNIM notably managed to disrupt the country’s supply routes and impose considerable pressure on Bamako.
In March 2026, Malian authorities even released around 200 people detained for alleged links to jihadists as part of an arrangement to secure a truce on attacks on fuel convoys.
For a junta that came to power promising to restore sovereignty and security, the symbolism is heavy.
Mali may no longer be choosing between Moscow and Washington
It would still be too early to speak of a break with Russia.
Moscow retains considerable interests in Mali, particularly in gold, lithium, and energy. Russia has supported mining and energy projects and continues to assert its commitment alongside Bamako.
Mali’s strategy seems instead to be evolving toward a pragmatic logic: no longer depending on a single partner.
After making Moscow the main security recourse following the French departure, Bamako now seems to recognize that Russia alone cannot meet all its military and intelligence needs.
This is where the United States reappears.
Washington offers what Moscow does not necessarily provide under the same conditions: aerial and satellite intelligence capabilities, considerable technological means, and deep knowledge of jihadist networks.
The rapprochement with America may therefore be less an ideological conversion than a pragmatic observation: Mali needs multiple partners to confront a threat that its alliance with Russia has not eliminated.
From Western rupture to pragmatism
Mali’s recent history is thus undergoing another reversal.
Yesterday, Bamako denounced the French and European presence and presented Russia as the sovereign alternative. Today, discussions with Washington are resuming at a level that would have seemed improbable just a few years ago.
Russia remains in Mali. But its security record is contested, its forces are facing setbacks, and jihadists continue to threaten the country.
In this context, the US-Mali rapprochement appears as much more than a simple diplomatic episode. It could mark the beginning of a new foreign policy for Bamako: no longer replacing one partner with another, but using rivalry between great powers to obtain from each what Mali needs.
Mali has not yet abandoned Russia. But one thing is now clear: Russia’s monopoly on Mali’s security partnership may already be a thing of the past.
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