Expelling French troops and severing ties with the West was supposed to usher in a ‘second independence’ for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Four years after the first coups, populist rhetoric now collides with a harsh reality: dependence has merely changed hands, insecurity is soaring, and economies are suffocating.
Four years ago, public squares in Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey echoed with anti-French slogans. The forced departures of ambassadors and soldiers from Operation Barkhane were hailed as historic victories. Riding on promises of total renewal, the captains and generals in power assured that regained sovereignty would magically solve the terrorist equation. By 2026, the honeymoon is definitively over. The track record of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) reveals a systemic failure that state propaganda is increasingly struggling to conceal.
The security mirage: The boomerang effect of the Russian partnership
The first justification used by military regimes for their coups was France’s failure to eradicate jihadism. Yet the chosen remedy has proved worse than the disease. By replacing Western forces with Russian paramilitaries from Africa Corps (formerly Wagner), Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey opted for a scorched-earth strategy.
On the ground, terrorist groups such as JNIM and EIGS have never been more powerful. They now surround strategic towns and cut off vital supply routes. Worse still, the human cost is terrifying. Reports from independent organizations highlight a surge in abuses against civilians during joint operations. Far from being protected, the people of the Sahel are caught between jihadist terror and the brutality of new security auxiliaries, while the number of internally displaced persons reaches historic highs.
Diplomatic isolation: The institutional flight forward
To mask domestic failures, AES leaders have adopted a policy of permanent rupture. The dramatic withdrawal from ECOWAS deprived the three countries of their natural economic partners. More recently, their collective exit from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and restrictions on UN agencies have turned the region into a diplomatic gray zone.
This institutional flight forward primarily serves to shield the ruling regimes from any external scrutiny of human rights or compliance with democratic transition timelines. Promised elections to return power to civilians are repeatedly postponed indefinitely, turning what were meant to be temporary transitions into entrenched military dictatorships.
Stagnant economy and social regression
Economically, the assessment is equally grim. The rhetoric of monetary sovereignty and self-sufficiency clashes with the harsh reality of numbers. Regional isolation has driven a steep rise in the cost of living and basic necessities. Local businesses are suffocating under the weight of indirect sanctions, declining foreign investment, and chronic power outages that paralyze Bamako and Ouagadougou.
While national budgets are drained to fund the war effort and pay Russian mercenaries (often compensated through mining concessions), basic social services are collapsing. Thousands of schools remain closed, and the health system is bleeding. Instead of investing in human development, national resources are seized by military apparatuses.
A change of masters, not liberation
Four years after the Great Divorce with Paris, the verdict is bitter. The Sahel is neither safer, more prosperous, nor more independent. By ousting an imperfect but predictable Western partner, AES leaders have thrown their countries into the arms of an opportunistic Russian power whose sole aim is geopolitical. The promised ‘second independence’ has turned into a tragic economic and security regression, where the sovereignty brandished at the top is merely a smokescreen for the suffocation of the people below.
