Here’s a rundown of the pivotal political and economic developments across the African continent this past week:
- Emmanuel Macron’s strategic shift in African policy culminating in Nairobi.
- The Africa CEO Forum’s call for the private sector to scale up.
- Ongoing speculation surrounding the vacant Vice-Presidency in Cameroon.
- Senegal’s constitutional reform and its potential implications for Ousmane Sonko.
- Insights into Philippe Lalliot, France’s new ambassador to Morocco.
1. Emmanuel Macron’s decade-long African policy culminates in Nairobi
Key takeaways. In a significant interview preceding the Africa Forward summit in Nairobi (May 11-12), President Emmanuel Macron outlined a clear shift in France’s engagement with Africa. He declared the traditional paradigm of public development aid obsolete, advocating instead for a model of “solidarity investment.” This message directly targets private markets, which he believes are hindered by unfavorable credit ratings and an exaggerated perception of risk.
Event highlights. The Nairobi summit, marking the first in a series of Franco-African gatherings held outside West Africa, brought together approximately thirty heads of state, with Kenyan President William Ruto co-hosting. During the event, Macron announced investment pledges totaling 23 billion euros, with 14 billion euros originating from French public and private sources. Proparco, a private development finance institution, notably committed 500 million euros in a single day, representing nearly half its annual African allocation.
A significant pivot. While the French President briefly addressed the Sahelian situation, his choice of Nairobi speaks volumes. Following diplomatic ruptures with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, Paris is clearly reorienting its focus towards Anglophone East Africa. This move benefits President Ruto, who seeks a credible partner to champion reforms in the international financial architecture at the upcoming G7 summit in June, particularly with a Kenyan presidential election a year away.
The numbers. Official development assistance from OECD countries has plummeted by over a third in two years. France, specifically, has reduced its allocation by approximately 2 billion euros. Macron aims to fill this void with private capital – a strategy whose tangible results are yet to be fully demonstrated.
2. “We must not wait to be swindled anymore”: Africa CEO Forum urges private sector to scale up
Key insights. The 13th edition of the Africa CEO Forum, held in Kigali, centered on the theme “scale or fail.” Addressing 2,800 decision-makers and eight heads of state, the consensus was clear: Africa’s national markets are too fragmented, intra-African trade remains insufficient, and the continent must abandon its disjointed approach to economic development.
Why it matters. The challenge is structural. Without continental champions capable of asserting influence on the global stage, Africa risks remaining a mere exporter of potential—be it minerals, talent, or capital—rather than capturing the inherent value. Eight years after its launch, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) project remains incomplete, plagued by persistent regulatory barriers, high logistical costs, and still marginal intra-African trade.
A notable quote. Rwandan President Paul Kagame remarked, “On one hand, they come to lecture us on human rights, and on the other, they come to take our minerals. We must not wait to be swindled anymore.”
3. Vice-President of Paul Biya: a prolonged silence and an expanding list of contenders
Key points. While the decree re-establishing Cameroon’s Vice-Presidency has been promulgated, the office remains conspicuously empty. In Yaoundé, speculation is rampant, with a growing list of potential candidates including Paul Atanga Nji, Louis-Paul Motaze, Philémon Yang, and Oswald Baboké, as President Paul Biya delays his decision.
The stalemate. Franck Biya, the President’s son, was reportedly slated for appointment shortly after the April decree, with his first official duty being to welcome Pope Leo XIV. A press release was even prepared for broadcast on CRTV, but it was never issued. Internal dynamics suggest First Lady Chantal Biya intervened at the last minute, favoring her own son, Franck Hertz. Behind the circulating names, a deeper struggle for presidential succession is unfolding behind the scenes.
4. In Senegal, why constitutional reform could primarily benefit Ousmane Sonko
Key information. A preliminary draft of a constitutional revision, unveiled on April 27, appears set to reconfigure the balance of power within the Senegalese executive, potentially favoring Ousmane Sonko. Two pivotal changes are proposed: the President would now be required to determine national policy “in consultation” with the Prime Minister, and the Prime Minister would gain an independent right to refer matters to the future Constitutional Court, separate from presidential consent. Furthermore, President Faye would be barred from leading a political party or campaigning, while Sonko would retain full autonomy to remain at the helm of Pastef.
Why it matters. This presents an institutional risk. Article 49 remains unchanged, meaning President Faye could still dismiss Prime Minister Sonko at any moment. However, should the tensions between the two leaders, which have been evident for months, escalate to such a scenario, Senegal could face an unprecedented cohabitation: a constitutionally strengthened leader of the parliamentary majority, forced into opposition from the Prime Minister’s office.
5. What to know about Philippe Lalliot, France’s new ambassador to Morocco
Macron’s appointment. Philippe Lalliot, 60, is set to succeed Christophe Lecourtier as France’s ambassador to Morocco, a decision personally made by President Macron. Lalliot, a career diplomat from the Quai d’Orsay and current director of the Crisis and Support Centre (CDCS), brings a crisis management profile rather than a political one, aligning with France’s updated approach to Rabat.
Dual challenges. Lalliot inherits a bilateral relationship that is warming but still incomplete, with an friendship treaty under negotiation and a state visit by King Mohammed VI to France yet to be officially scheduled. Simultaneously, he faces a substantial economic foundation: France accounts for nearly 30% of total foreign direct investment stock in Morocco. While Paris seeks to accelerate engagement, Rabat continues to advance deliberately, step by step.
