Gabon’s national debt is on a significant upward trajectory, with projections indicating it will reach 94.3% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027. This concerning forecast, stemming from budgetary analyses released in Libreville, highlights a critical situation for the nation. The trend, initiated under the transitional presidency and subsequently reinforced during Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema’s tenure, places Gabon well above the 70% GDP convergence criteria set by the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC).
An increasing debt path raising concerns among financial partners
The acceleration of Gabon’s outstanding debt clashes with the fiscal discipline commitments made to multilateral lenders. Despite substantial oil revenues and a rebound in manganese prices – Gabon being a leading global producer – the country’s public finances struggle to generate the necessary surpluses for debt reduction. A growing portion of state revenues is now consumed by debt servicing, thereby diminishing the capacity for vital investments in infrastructure and social services.
This dynamic unfolds as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suspended its disbursements under the Extended Credit Facility earlier in 2024, citing financial governance discrepancies and spending overruns. Without an active program with the Bretton Woods institution, Libreville is compelled to increasingly rely on the regional public securities market and bilateral financing, both of which incur higher costs compared to concessional windows.
The risky gamble of public spending-led recovery
Since assuming power in August 2023 following the overthrow of Ali Bongo Ondimba, General Oligui Nguema has strategically leveraged public procurement as a tool for political legitimation. Numerous projects have been launched, including road infrastructure, rehabilitation of social facilities, and housing programs, all presented with a proactive stance to signal a clear break from previous administrations. However, this fiscal impetus has resulted in a widening primary deficit and an accumulation of domestic arrears owed to state suppliers.
Specifically, Gabon’s public debt stock is anticipated to climb from approximately 73% of GDP in 2024 to 94.3% by 2027, according to official budget documents. Such a rapid increase over three fiscal years indicates a growing reliance of the national budget on borrowing rather than on internal tax mobilization. Gabon’s tax pressure rate, historically low for a middle-income country, remains a persistent point of contention with technical partners.
Fiscal sovereignty and the message to investors
For a sovereign issuer like Gabon, which participates in international markets through several Eurobonds, the evolution of its credit rating is a direct concern. Rating agencies have repeatedly revised the country’s outlook, penalizing the uncertainty surrounding its budgetary trajectory and future refinancing capacity. A sustained breach of the 90% of GDP threshold would expose Libreville to higher costs for its external debt and a shrinking pool of investors willing to subscribe to its bond issuances.
Within the sub-region, Gabon’s situation is closely monitored by CEMAC partners, who fear that an isolated fiscal slippage could destabilize the common foreign exchange reserves managed by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). Regional monetary authorities have frequently reiterated the need for a return to sustainable ratios, especially as Chad, Congo-Brazzaville, and Cameroon also face strained debt profiles.
The political credibility of this announced trajectory remains a crucial question. The move towards a civilian constitutional framework, confirmed by the November 2024 referendum and the April 2025 presidential election, theoretically paves the way for the re-establishment of financial cooperation programs. Nevertheless, the Gabonese executive must complement its infrastructure ambitions with a credible fiscal consolidation plan. This is a prerequisite to prevent public debt from becoming a structural vulnerability for the country’s economy in the medium term. Official projections explicitly show the 94.3% of GDP threshold for 2027.
