While Paris Saint-Germain already celebrated their fourteenth French championship title mid-week, preparing for a derby clash against Paris FC at Jean-Bouin, the concluding Ligue 1 fixture list on Sunday, May 17, promises a multitude of dramatic twists. Significant uncertainties persist for both European qualification places and the critical relegation playoff position. Let’s delve into the crucial scenarios unfolding on this decisive final day.

Lille holds its destiny

Behind the already-qualified Paris Saint-Germain and RC Lens, a fierce competition rages among three clubs vying for the third and final direct qualification spot for the Champions League. Lille, currently in third place with 61 points, leads the pack, closely followed by Lyon in fourth with 60 points, and Rennes in fifth with 59 points.

The Lille squad, enjoying an impressive thirteen-match unbeaten streak stretching back to February 1, is uniquely positioned to secure this coveted third spot. A victory for LOSC against relegation-threatened Auxerre would guarantee their Champions League qualification, making them unreachable by their rivals. The northern club is already assured of at least a fifth-place finish, which would grant them a Europa League berth. Meanwhile, Lyon’s players are keenly watching for any misstep from Lille as they prepare to host Lens. Should Lyon triumph over the Sang et Or, who might have their focus split ahead of their Coupe de France final against Nice next week, they could at minimum secure a Champions League preliminary round spot.

Marseille-Rennes: a high-stakes encounter

The pivotal clash at the Vélodrome between Olympique Marseille and Stade Rennais carries immense consequences for the losing side. Stade Rennais can ensure a place in the Europa League, or even better with a win, if they avoid defeat. However, a loss could relegate them to the less prestigious – and less lucrative – Europa Conference League. Franck Haise’s men have recently suffered two significant setbacks against direct European competitors, falling to Lille (2-1) and Lyon (4-2). For Marseille’s coach Habib Beye, who faces his former club after his dismissal in February, the pressure is even more intense.

Following a season marked by numerous sporting and off-field challenges, Marseille, who secured a lackluster victory against Le Havre after a heavy defeat in Nantes, must aim higher than their current sixth position. But a defeat could prove catastrophic for Marseille: Monaco, sitting seventh and just two points behind OM, could leapfrog the Olympiens and push them out of all European contention should they secure a victory against Strasbourg.

The relegation playoff battle: Le Havre, Auxerre, or Nice

With Metz and Nantes already confirmed for relegation to Ligue 2 next season, three clubs are locked in a desperate struggle to avoid the dreaded relegation playoff spot: Le Havre (14th, 32 points), Auxerre (15th, 31 points), and Nice (16th, 31 points).

Despite an early goal from Sofiane Diop (2-1), Auxerre managed a crucial win against Nice last week, earning themselves a temporary reprieve. However, Auxerre now faces a daunting trip to Lille. Paradoxically, Nice, currently occupying the relegation playoff spot, appears to have the most favorable path to safety. The Niçois footballers will host Metz, the league’s bottom team, who haven’t secured a victory since November. Le Havre, on the other hand, travels to face Lorient (9th), a consistently solid club. The Normans could find themselves in the relegation playoff if their two direct competitors for survival manage to win, especially given Le Havre’s prolonged slump, having not won a match since early February against Strasbourg.