Sometimes, history’s irony is more than just a phrase. Forty-four years after the infamous ‘match of shame’ in Gijón during the 1982 World Cup, Algeria and Austria find themselves once again embroiled in intricate calculations for their progression in the tournament. In 1982, the final group stage matches were not played concurrently. Austria and West Germany knew that a narrow 1-0 victory for the latter would secure qualification for both teams, eliminating Algeria. The result was precisely that: a 1-0 German win in a match widely criticized for its lack of genuine effort for a significant portion of the game.

Fast forward 44 years, and the scenario is markedly different. With the expansion to 48 teams and the qualification of the eight best third-placed teams from twelve groups, the calculations are both complex and, in a way, straightforward. The upcoming Austria-Algeria fixture will be the final group match with direct implications for this ‘best third-placed’ ranking.

Currently, Austria holds the second spot in their group with 3 points and a goal difference of 0, while Algeria is third with 3 points and a -2 goal difference.

To secure qualification, a minimum of 3 points and a neutral or positive goal difference will likely be required. Both teams can achieve this with a draw, which would see them both reach 4 points and qualify. However, neither can guarantee qualification with a defeat. There are, nevertheless, a few specific scenarios where Austria could still advance with a narrow loss: for instance, if Congo fails to win their match and Croatia is defeated by Ghana.

Rangnick: “we’ll see a few minutes from the end”

Why would either team consider losing? A peculiar aspect of the 48-team World Cup knockout bracket suggests that finishing third in this group might actually be more advantageous than finishing second. The second-placed team is slated to face Spain, a strong contender for the title. In contrast, the third-placed team would encounter a different group winner, potentially Switzerland, which could be perceived as a more favorable draw. However, given recent results, this strategic calculation might no longer hold as true. For Austria, it will likely be either direct qualification via second place or elimination. Crucially, the Austrian squad will be aware of all other group results before their match kicks off.

The most straightforward outcome that benefits both teams is a draw. This would grant them both 4 points and ensure their progression to the knockout stages. Such a situation has already occurred in this World Cup, notably in the Paraguay-Australia match, which ended 0-0. Ralf Rangnick, Austria’s German coach, acknowledged this precedent. “We saw what happened with Paraguay-Australia where a draw would be sufficient for both teams,” he remarked in a press conference. However, he quickly dismissed the idea of playing for a draw from the outset, stating, “But we cannot enter this match saying: we will play for a draw. We are in the same situation as Algeria; we’ll see a few minutes from the end.”

A similar sentiment was echoed by Algeria’s coach, Vladimir Petkovic: “We must give everything we have on the field and not think at all about the different hypotheses. We enter the field with a single objective: to win.”