Cameroon’s public investment budget execution experienced a dramatic collapse during the first quarter of 2026, marking a particularly turbulent start to the fiscal year. By the end of March, ordered investment expenditures amounted to merely 45 billion FCFA, a stark contrast to the 175.5 billion FCFA recorded during the same period a year earlier. This represents an absolute decrease of 130.5 billion FCFA, signifying a sharp 74.4% contraction year-on-year. Consequently, the execution rate for investment credits allocated in the 2026 finance law plummeted to an unprecedented 2.5%, an exceptionally low figure even for a quarter traditionally characterized by slow activity.
PROBMIS IA: a technical transition stalls the spending pipeline
The Ministry of Finance (Minfi) attributes a significant portion of this slowdown to the migration of its budget management system to a new IT platform, PROBMIS IA, which became operational at the start of the current fiscal year. The Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document (DPBMT) for 2027-2029, prepared ahead of the Budget Orientation Debate, explicitly acknowledges that technical constraints associated with this transition hindered the processing of financial operations. Current expenditures fared only marginally better, achieving an execution rate of 14.7% by the end of March.
The disruption proved particularly severe for investments funded through domestic resources, where the execution rate stood at a mere 0.3%. Investments supported by external funding performed slightly better at 5.2%, though this figure remains modest. In essence, the entire spending chain became congested precisely when government departments were expected to initiate their initial commitments for the year. The Minfi has taken responsibility for this slower-than-usual start.
External financing: a significant drop in disbursements
Compounding the technical friction is a less favorable environment for resource mobilization. Loans and grants actually secured by the end of March totaled only 137.5 billion FCFA, a considerable drop from the 327.6 billion FCFA mobilized in the corresponding period last year. This represents a decrease of 190.1 billion FCFA, or a 58% reduction year-on-year. This shortfall impacted both project-specific loans and grants, as well as general budgetary support.
Breaking down the figures, project loans attracted only 39.4 billion FCFA against a quarterly forecast of 206.7 billion FCFA, achieving a realization rate of just 19%. Grants barely reached 0.1 billion FCFA, falling far short of the anticipated 18.5 billion FCFA, while no budget support disbursements were recorded during the period. This combination of factors mechanically weighed down on externally financed investments, whose timeline remains dependent on the disbursement pace of international partners.
Overall, the budgetary resources mobilized by the Cameroonian state totaled 1,331.4 billion FCFA by the end of March, against an annual target of 8,683.9 billion FCFA. The realization rate settled at 15.3%, down from 19.6% a year earlier. On the expenditure side, total ordered spending reached 1,547.1 billion FCFA, a 2.9% decline compared to the 1,593.2 billion FCFA recorded the previous year. Current expenditures, excluding interest payments, also fell by 80.5 billion FCFA, settling at 566.1 billion FCFA.
A tangible threat to SND30’s flagship projects
The first quarter typically sees lower consumption of investment credits due to procurement lead times and the gradual ramp-up of construction projects. However, the magnitude of this year’s observed decline far exceeds usual patterns. Should such a delay persist, it would place significant strain on the schedule of infrastructure projects outlined in the National Development Strategy 2020-2030 (SND30).
Sectors heavily reliant on public contracts find themselves on the front lines. Construction and public works, building materials, engineering, and transportation all depend critically on the state’s capacity to process equipment expenditures within planned deadlines. A sustained underperformance in execution would inevitably impact the cash flow of awarded companies and dampen domestic economic activity.
The immediate challenge for Cameroonian authorities now involves swiftly resolving the technical hitches within PROBMIS IA and accelerating the mobilization of external financing. This dual adjustment capability is crucial for recovering the ground lost over the past three months and is widely considered indispensable for achieving the nation’s 2026 objectives.
