Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa export momentum, which has seen nearly one million tonnes already contracted for the 2026-27 harvest season, faces potential disruptions from the anticipated arrival of El Niño in July. Industry analysts and commodity traders express growing concern over the climatic phenomenon’s possible impact on production and supply chains.
To manage stock levels amid rising demand, the Conseil du Café et du Cacao (CCC), headquartered in Abidjan, has adjusted its premium policy. Sector sources confirm that the council has increased the bonus for additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the futures price, signaling a tightening market strategy.
Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s top cocoa producer, has already finalized contracts for between 950,000 and one million tonnes of the upcoming harvest, set to commence on September 1st. Despite this strong start, cautious market players have opted to slow down export activities to avoid overcommitment. « We’ve sold nearly a million tonnes, but we’re pacing ourselves to minimize risks, » shared a senior official from the CCC on condition of anonymity.
Trading firms anticipate export volumes of 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes for the next season, attributing the higher premium to market conditions. « The current market dynamics allow the CCC to set more competitive terms. They don’t need to reduce the premium to secure deals, » explained a cocoa trading executive.
However, this positive trajectory could be undermined by El Niño, which meteorologists warn may trigger severe dry spells across West Africa’s cocoa belt. Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria—the region’s top producers—could experience reduced yields, threatening global supply stability.
Beyond climate risks, exporters highlight structural challenges plaguing Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa sector. Aging plantations, coupled with rising costs of fertilizers and phytosanitary products, pose a more immediate threat to production sustainability. « Long-term droughts like El Niño aren’t the biggest worry. The real crisis is the fertilizer shortage and soaring input prices, » emphasized a leading Abidjan-based exporter. Many farms are struggling with outdated trees and pest infestations, exacerbating output challenges.
