Mathematically, Arsenal still have a theoretical chance to close the title gap, but this would require Mikel Arteta‘s side to drop points against both already-relegated Burnley and Crystal Palace, while Manchester City secure wins against Bournemouth and Aston Villa. A highly unlikely scenario under normal circumstances.
City’s home fortress remains unbreakable
Pep Guardiola’s side has not lost a league match at home since August, with an unbeaten run stretching back to October 2021 against Crystal Palace (5 wins, 3 draws). The Citizens have also recorded 13 victories and three draws at the Etihad Stadium in the current campaign, conceding only once before halftime in every league game since the loss to Tottenham in August.
Their attacking prowess is equally impressive: 38 goals scored in the first half this season is the highest tally in the Premier League, while just nine conceded before the break reflects their defensive solidity. Over the past 23 evening fixtures, they remain undefeated, though five of this season’s eight matches played after 19:00 have ended in draws.
Haaland’s personal rivalry with Palace
Erling Haaland has scored in each of his five Premier League appearances against Crystal Palace, making him one of the most in-form strikers against this opponent. Only Mohamed Salah and Raheem Sterling have managed to net in six consecutive league games against the same side—a feat achieved against Bournemouth.
Jérémy Doku is another player to watch, with five goals and two assists in his last six outings—matching his combined contribution from his previous 24 appearances for the club (one goal, six assists).
Palace’s attacking threats
Ismaila Sarr has found the net nine times in his last ten starts for Palace, while his 20-goal tally this season is the club’s best since Glenn Murray in 2012/13. Jean-Philippe Mateta could also make history—if he scores, he’ll become only the second Palace player, after Wilfried Zaha, to reach 50 Premier League goals in a Crystal Palace shirt. Notably, 32 of his 49 career goals came away from Selhurst Park, though just two of his 11 strikes this term have been scored outside South London.
Palace’s surprising resilience at the Etihad
The Eagles have managed to score twice in each of their last four away trips to the Etihad, though they’ve only claimed one victory in those matches (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses). Their ability to trouble even the league’s top sides is evident, with only City and Arsenal boasting more away wins this season. Palace has conceded just two draws on the road, highlighting their competitive edge.
City’s dominance in all metrics
Manchester City leads the Premier League in total passes (20,582), pass success rate (89%), shots attempted (549), shots on target (193), and conversion rate (18%). Former Palace captain Marc Guehi has made the most passes for City this season with 2,126.
In stark contrast, Palace ranks bottom in pass success rate (78%) and second-worst in conversion rate (13%). The most goals in the league tend to come in the final 15 minutes before halftime—City has scored 20 and conceded 17 in this window, while Palace has allowed 17 goals during the same period.
City has lost just once after taking the lead this season, emphasizing the importance of early scoring for Palace if they hope to salvage a point.
Injury updates for both sides
Crystal Palace will be without Cheick Doucouré and Eddie Nketiah, while Evann Guessand and Borna Sosa face late fitness tests. On the other side, Manchester City misses Rodri and Josko Gvardiol, with Abdukodir Khusanov also undergoing a last-minute assessment.
