The eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) remains trapped in a cycle of violence despite a landmark peace accord signed in Washington last year. Renewed clashes between government forces and the March 23 Movement (M23)—a rebel group accused by the United Nations of receiving military backing from Rwanda—have intensified in recent weeks, overshadowing efforts to stabilize the region.
Diplomatic initiatives have struggled to translate into lasting peace. In April 2025, Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame convened in Doha under Qatari mediation, engaging in direct talks with the M23’s political wing, the Congo River Alliance. Meanwhile, the United States spearheaded parallel negotiations, culminating in a bilateral agreement between Kigali and Kinshasa on June 27, 2025, attended by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Yet, the situation on the ground tells a different story. According to Bob Kabamba, a political scientist at the University of Liège, the region is stuck in a de facto stalemate. The M23 continues to hold strategic territories, while sporadic exchanges of fire and ceasefire violations persist on both sides. “The rebel group retains the upper hand,” Kabamba explains. “It continues to expand its recruitment and consolidate its position, which could dictate the terms of any future settlement.”
The humanitarian toll remains severe, compounded by an ongoing Ebola outbreak. Displaced populations face mounting threats, and the lack of progress risks deepening instability across the Great Lakes region.
