General Abdourahamane Tiani faces an unprecedented challenge in niger. With terrorist factions multiplying and internal military dissent simmering, the transitional leader is attempting a desperate gamble to avert disaster in the capital. His approach blends covert negotiations with a firm crackdown on dissenting factions within his own ranks, as he navigates treacherous waters to prevent the collapse of niamey’s security.
the say channel: a calculated risk with high stakes
The confidential meeting held on march 24 near the town of say represents a pivotal moment in niger’s counterterrorism strategy. By dispatching a four-member delegation to engage with the group for the support of islam and muslims (gsim), general tiani has abandoned his previous stance of unwavering confrontation in favor of a more pragmatic survival strategy.
Two core tactical objectives emerge from this covert diplomacy:
- redefining the enemy: with the islamic state in the greater sahara (eigs), which demonstrated its brutal capabilities in the january attack on dori-hamani airport, the military junta now prioritizes neutralizing the gsim through dialogue. The goal is to shift from a draining three-way conflict to a more manageable bilateral confrontation.
- avoiding mali’s fate: niger watches with growing alarm as the gsim tightens its stranglehold on bamako. By addressing the demands of the hanifa katiba—such as the release of prisoners and annual tribute payments—niamey hopes to secure critical supply routes and logistical breathing room.
underpaid soldiers: a ticking time bomb
Yet no grand strategy can succeed without a cohesive and motivated military. The recent dismissal of the commander of the battalion for security and intelligence (bsr) in tahoua, following complaints over unpaid salaries—troops received 800 cfa francs instead of the promised 1,200—exposes a deep structural flaw.
Once a cornerstone of cooperation with american special forces before their 2024 withdrawal, the bsr now embodies the broader disarray within niger’s military. Budget cuts and internal logistical failures have left the ranks demoralized. Colonel mamane sani kiaou, chief of staff of the land army, was forced to intervene personally to quell the unrest, underscoring that the internal threat may now rival the jihadist danger.
the security vacuum and shifting alliances
The surge in secret negotiations coincides with a radical reshaping of niger’s geopolitical ties. Since the departure of french and american troops, the country has pivoted toward the alliance of sahel states (aes), as well as new partners like russia and turkey.
Despite the arrival of military advisors and new equipment—including surveillance drones—the battlefield remains unforgiving. The loss of high-precision aerial intelligence, previously provided by the 101st base in niamey and agadez, has forced the junta to reinvent its ground-level diplomacy with former adversaries.
the irony of continuity: echoes of bazoum’s legacy
The irony is not lost on observers. The july 26, 2023 coup was justified in part by the perceived failure of mohamed bazoum’s security policies. Yet now, general tiani finds himself employing similar tactics: negotiation as a counterinsurgency tool.
Where bazoum openly engaged in dialogue to secure hostage releases—such as the case of nun suellen tennyson—the current junta must operate in secrecy. Any perceived softening toward al-qaeda-linked groups risks alienating hardline supporters within the aes and other allies, who may view such moves as a sign of weakness.
The general now stands at a crossroads. While negotiating with the gsim to isolate the eigs may be a logical tactical decision, it carries immense political peril. By entertaining terms such as annual tributes or territorial withdrawals, the junta risks legitimizing armed groups in the long term. For general tiani, the greatest challenge is no longer seizing power—it is holding together an army that is counting every franc while the enemy counts its territorial gains.
