The political landscape in Senegal has seen rapid developments following President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s recent dismissal of Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko. This move marks a practically unavoidable rupture, fueled by escalating political tensions and increasingly overt disagreements between the two leaders at the helm of the executive in the Land of Teranga.
In the wake of this decision, National Assembly President Malick Ndiaye announced his resignation from the parliamentary leadership, though he intends to remain a deputy. This sequence of events appears to be a meticulously planned strategy to pave the way for the former Prime Minister, who has requested to rejoin the national representation and resume his mandate as a member of parliament.
A definitive political separation
The Parliament is scheduled to convene in an extraordinary session on May 26th to elect its new president and address Sonko’s return. All indications suggest that, barring an unforeseen upheaval, Ousmane Sonko, the former Mayor of Ziguinchor who was unceremoniously removed from the premiership, is poised to assume leadership of the Parliament. This strategic position would allow him to continue his power struggle with President Bassirou Diomaye Faye.
The pressing question now is: how far will this conflict between the two former allies extend? This query gains particular weight given that, beyond the former National Assembly President’s resignation—which appears to be a gesture of loyalty towards Sonko—Ousmane Sonko is expected to face little difficulty in securing the top parliamentary post, should he desire it. The National Assembly is overwhelmingly dominated by Pastef (Patriotes africains du Sénégal pour le travail, l’éthique et la fraternité), the ruling party, where Sonko remains the prominent figurehead, commanding no fewer than 130 of the 165 parliamentary seats.
This highlights the profound significance of Tuesday’s session, which offers the former Prime Minister a path to remain deeply entrenched in the political arena and the highest echelons of state decision-making by becoming the head of Parliament. This is a highly strategic role, especially in a context where a clear separation seems to have occurred between the Thiès native and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who is driven by a desire to emerge from his former mentor’s shadow and assert his own authority.
Ousmane Sonko’s potential to obstruct
In this clash of ambitions between former comrades who have reached the pinnacle of state power, Senegal faces the potential risk of an institutional crisis. This is particularly true if, as the scenario seems to unfold, Ousmane Sonko is elected President of the National Assembly following the May 26th session. Such an outcome would make him the second most powerful individual in the state and the constitutional successor to the President.
From this vantage point, he could leverage his control over the legislative branch at any moment to impede governmental actions. It is difficult to predict the extent of the rivalry between these two leaders of the ruling party. If not carefully managed, this situation risks negatively impacting the party’s internal cohesion. Indeed, with these two prominent figures in open conflict, one might question whether Pastef is prematurely sabotaging its own future.
It is evident that since their ascent to power, Ousmane Sonko has shown impatience to claim the presidency from Bassirou Diomaye Faye, whom he propelled into the role under well-known circumstances (Sonko had been deemed ineligible in May 2023, preventing his candidacy in the 2024 presidential election). He seemingly aims to be the kingmaker, and then the king.
All signs suggest that by entering into open conflict with the Head of State today, he not only intends to avoid remaining in the latter’s shadow but also believes he holds enough leverage to pursue his presidential ambitions, overcoming the judicial obstacle encountered in 2024.
A delicate balance of power
This is particularly relevant given the new Electoral Code, which was smoothly passed on May 12th. This revision aims to clarify cases of ineligibility and end the possibility of disqualifying candidates for political reasons. However, some opposition figures perceived it as a means to open candidacies for both Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye.
While the fierce opponent of former President Macky Sall can still boast significant popularity within the party he founded, the question of his eligibility for the next presidential election, scheduled for March 2029, will likely remain contentious until the Constitutional Council issues a definitive ruling.
Should the rivalry between these two prominent figures at the top of the state intensify, it could devolve into a precarious standoff, portending an unstable future for Senegal. This could be even more detrimental for Pastef, which might be outmaneuvered by a third contender in upcoming elections, or face a punitive vote from the Senegalese populace, known for their decisive electoral power.
In the interim, hopes are high that reason will prevail in the nation’s best interest, ensuring that Senegal does not become a hostage to the rivalries between these two political leaders who initially promised a new era of governance.
