The return of Shell to Gabon signals a shift in the country’s oil landscape. Ten years after pulling out, the Anglo-Dutch major is preparing to reinvest in the Gabonese sedimentary basin, as Libreville seeks to reverse a steady decline in hydrocarbon output. The announcement, made amid reforms launched since the political transition, underscores the government’s effort to attract international investors.
In 2016, Shell exited Gabon by selling its onshore assets to Assala Energy, then controlled by the Carlyle fund. The deal, valued at several hundred million dollars, was part of a broader portfolio rationalisation as the group focused on more profitable ventures, particularly liquefied natural gas and deepwater projects. The departure left a symbolic void, as Gabon lost one of its historic operators.
A political signal for Gabon’s oil sector
The major’s comeback comes under President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, who took power during the August 2023 transition and was later confirmed in elections. In recent months, Gabonese authorities have taken multiple steps to make the upstream framework more attractive: revising the hydrocarbons code, relaunching block bidding rounds, and opening bilateral talks with several majors. The strategy aims to reverse production, which currently hovers around 200,000 barrels per day, far from the late-1990s peak.
For Shell, the decision to return is not insignificant. Having chosen to shed mature assets deemed non-strategic, the group is now recalibrating its view of Africa. The scarcity of major onshore discoveries, rising costs of ultra-deepwater exploration, and the search for medium-term oil growth engines are reshaping the majors’ choices. The Gabonese basin, with potential in deep offshore and pre-salt structures, has regained some appeal in this context.
Declining production that Libreville wants to revive
Oil remains Gabon’s top foreign exchange earner, traditionally accounting for over 40% of budget revenue and nearly 80% of exports. But the gradual depletion of mature fields, combined with weak investment in recent years, has undermined this balance. The authorities are counting on the return of big names in the sector to support exploration and extend the life of existing deposits.
Several international players have already shown renewed interest in the country. The national company, Gabon Oil Company (GOC), is gaining strength in asset governance as contracts expire or are renegotiated. Shell’s return could, in this scenario, involve partnerships with other local operators such as Perenco, TotalEnergies, or BW Energy, whose positions on offshore blocks have solidified.
A strategic return with details still to be clarified
The precise terms of the major’s redeployment remain unclear: the scope of the blocks involved, the engagement timeline, investment amounts, and the contractual model. The nature of the targeted permits—onshore or deepwater—will determine the scale of the comeback. A deepwater presence would require commitments of several hundred million dollars, while a strategy focused on mature assets would be more cautious and production-optimisation oriented.
Beyond the Shell case, the credibility of Gabon’s new oil policy is at stake. Libreville’s ability to turn announcements into actual investments—in a competitive environment where Nigeria, Angola, Namibia, and Senegal are vying for major capital—will shape the sector’s trajectory over the next decade. The return of the Anglo-Dutch company is, in this respect, a real-world test for the new administration.
