On April 20, 2026, General Évariste Ndayishimiye, then serving as the Chairperson of the African Union (AU), undertook an official “friendship and working” visit to Ouagadougou. This diplomatic engagement aimed to re-establish dialogue between the continental body and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), an alliance comprising Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, currently under the leadership of Captain Ibrahim Traoré.
This initiative unfolded amidst the withdrawal of AES member states from AU institutions. During his visit to Burkina Faso, a nation led by a military regime, the Burundian president commended efforts to restore security and stabilize the country, where its leader has openly declared democracy to be outdated. This raises a crucial question: beyond the diplomatic rhetoric of “dialogue” and “stability,” could this signify a deeper solidarity among authoritarian regimes that share a common disregard for constitutional constraints?
This analysis delves into the political mechanisms employed by Mali and Burundi to navigate external pressures, drawing insights from studies on international sanctions (imposed by the European Union and regional organizations) and authoritarian resilience within fragile states. Specifically, it examines how these two nations, among others subjected to sanctions like Niger, utilize internal and external narratives to maintain their grip on power.
converging political trajectories in africa
Indeed, Burundi shares a remarkable convergence of institutional trajectories with the AES states. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have faced sanctions from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the European Union (EU) following military coups in Mali (2020 and 2021), Burkina Faso (2022), and Niger (2023).
Burundi itself was sanctioned by the EU and the United States in 2016, a direct consequence of President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to pursue a controversial third term, widely deemed unconstitutional. Such political phenomena necessitate a cross-regional comparative approach, not merely to identify superficial similarities, but to uncover the profound, convergent logics at play.
The growing rapprochement between Burundi and Mali, for instance—two nations separated by thousands of kilometers and operating within distinct geopolitical environments—exemplifies the utility of such an analytical framework, offering valuable insights into pan-African current affairs.
the strategic construction of an adversary
In both Burundi and Mali, the identification of an
