The nations spanning the Sahelian belt, a geographical area stretching from Mali to Chad, hardly present themselves as an emerging economic powerhouse. Far from being a magnet for foreign direct investment like Singapore, the region faces severe challenges. Key economic indicators for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger reveal significant vulnerabilities. In Mali, for instance, 47% of its 25.9 million residents are under 15, only a quarter of its land is arable, and it ranks 188th out of 193 countries on the Human Development Index (UNDP). Nearly 45% of its population lives below the poverty line. Burkina Faso and Niger, with capitals Ouagadougou and Niamey respectively, show comparable figures, with 40% and 60.5% of their populations living in poverty, according to the World Bank. These three landlocked nations, now led by military juntas, have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), reportedly with backing from the Kremlin, eager to diminish remaining French influence. Their declared anti-French, anti-Western, and anti-democratic stance was intended to bring prosperity, claiming it had been withheld by Europeans, but this has not materialized. Nevertheless, two neighboring powers, Algeria and Morocco, are now extending their services to these states.
Morocco: forging an atlantic connection
Through the ambitious Dakhla Atlantic port construction, the Kingdom of Morocco is establishing a major maritime gateway in the Western Sahara, akin to its Tanger Med hub connecting with Europe. Scheduled for completion in 2028 and operational the following year, this infrastructure is designed to serve as a vital entry point for West Africa and a transit route to the Americas. Rabat has hosted the three leaders of the AES, underscoring the strategic nature of this offer. Geopolitically, the proposal is sharp: a deep-water port, potentially complemented by a future railway line (though not yet finalized), would grant these three landlocked nations crucial access to the Atlantic Ocean, thereby alleviating their isolation. The primary aim is to stimulate their economies. For Morocco, which faces geographical constraints due to its ongoing dispute with Algeria, this initiative serves multiple purposes. It demonstrates that its Western Sahara development strategy can benefit the entire sub-region, and that fostering economic growth can indirectly combat the jihadist groups destabilizing the Sahel by offering hope to its burgeoning, often desperate youth population. The Sahel’s birth rate is rapidly increasing, with its population projected to double within a decade.
Algeria: a trans-saharan gas pipeline to europe
Algeria, previously at odds with Niger, reconciled in mid-February with Abderrahmane Tiani, the head of Niger’s military government in Niamey. Algeria proposed to commence construction of the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline segment “immediately after Ramadan.” This crucial section would originate in Nigeria, traverse Niger, and culminate in Algeria. Spanning 4800 kilometers, the pipeline is intended to supply natural gas to Europe. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national hydrocarbons company, would oversee the construction within Nigerien territory and provide training to Nigeriens for its operation. This commitment to local capacity building stands in contrast to approaches often seen from China, which typically does not invest in training local personnel for the management of national resources.
Two complementary strategies in contention
Discussions regarding Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Western Sahara commenced in Madrid and Washington on February 23rd and 24th. Should this conflict, now in its fiftieth year, finally conclude, Algeria and Morocco could potentially collaborate on the Sahel’s volatile security and demographic challenges. Such cooperation would prevent the AES states from exploiting the existing rivalries between these two regional capitals.
Jihadism thrives amidst the combined scourges of extreme poverty and authoritarian governance. Both Algiers and Rabat are independently seeking to disrupt this destructive cycle. Each nation presents its unique strengths: Algeria leverages its hydrocarbon resources and the expertise of Sonatrach, while Rabat emphasizes its grand infrastructure projects and its aspiration to become a pivotal hub connecting three continents—Africa, America, and Europe. These two strategies, though inherently complementary, regrettably remain in opposition due to the enduring Western Sahara conflict.
*On September 26, 2025, Mali’s Prime Minister, Abdoulaye Maïga, publicly demanded that Algeria “cease supporting international terrorism.” In response, Algeria’s Foreign Minister, Ahmed Attaf, condemned these accusations as “the rantings of a thug.”
